RockyPrep

Here’s how to calculate your team’s points if going for the best case. Using Mountain Range as an example, below is their season schedule (all records are as of today, October 25).

1. Assume your team will win their week 9 game. Give them points based on their week 9 opponent’s record. Horizon has 3 wins, so a win over a 5A team with 3 wins is worth 102 points.
2. Assume all other teams win. However, you must look at the schedule for the week 9 games to see if some teams will play each other. It would be impossible in this case for all teams to win, as Poudre plays Rocky Mountain and Fort Collins plays Fossil Ridge. This is typically the case for conference teams. In this case, I’m picking Fort Collins to win since it’s both more realistic and it doesn’t matter. If either Fort Collins wins or Fossil Ridge ridge, Mountain Range will get 10 more points as Fort Collins will now have 8 wins, and Fossil Ridge 4 wins. It would actually be better for Poudre to beat Rocky Mountain, as Mountain Range will receive 10 points. If Rocky Mountain wins, Mountain Range only gets 3 points.
3. If you wanted to be more realistic, you should try and guess if your opponents would actually win their games.
4. Add up the points, divide by the number of games (9) and there’s your team’s point total.
5. Thus, 82.333 is the best case scenario for Mountain Range.
6. To do the worst case, assume all your opponents and you lose. However, with the 2 conference games, Mountain Range still receives points so you’ll have to add those to the points. In this case, they will receive 73 points at worst (10 from Fort Collins/Fossil Ridge, 3 from Rocky Mountain upset Poudre and 60 from losing to a 4-win Horizon), and their point total would be 74.0; clearly out of the playoff hopeful picture.

Date	Opponent	Location	Result	Points	Justification
Thu, Sep 2 7:00 pm	@ Northglenn (5-3)	Adams 12 Five Star	W, 35-28 (OT) β	111	5A with 6 wins
Sat, Sep 11 10:00 am	@ George Washington* (2-6)	All City	W, 35-6 β	102	5A with 3 wins
Fri, Sep 17 7:00 pm	Legacy (4-4)	Adams 12 Five Star North	L, 0-27 β	70	5A with 5 wins
Fri, Sep 24 7:00 pm	@ Boulder (4-4)	Recht	L, 0-21 β	70	5A with 5 wins
Thu, Sep 30 6:00 pm	@ Fort Collins* (7-1) ©	French	L, 6-41 β	80	5A with 8 wins
Fri, Oct 8 7:00 pm	Fossil Ridge (3-5) ©	Adams 12 Five Star North	L, 12-15 β	50	5A with 3 wins
Thu, Oct 14 7:00 pm	@ Poudre (3-5) ©	French	L, 14-23 β	60	5A with 4 wins
Thu, Oct 21 7:00 pm	Rocky Mountain (1-7) ©	Adams 12 Five Star North	W, 14-7 β	96	5A with 1 win
Fri, Oct 29 7:00 pm	Horizon (3-5) ©	Adams 12 Five Star North		102	5A team win 3 wins
				82.333

(Items in Red have been changed for the purpose of this example calculation and are not accurate.)

82.333 would leave Mountain Range at #33 if all my other predictions come true to my analysis yesterday. If they get some help, say by Rampart (losing to Doherty and everything else true makes them end up with 81.667) or Westminster (losing to Aurora Central and everything else true makes them end up with 80.444) they could get in.

If you’re looking for something to tell your team to get in, then think about this: You can only control what you do in your final regular season game.  You can’t control if other teams win or lose, so don’t worry about it: Just go play your best to get that W that is the most important.

Be sure to look at the 2010 CHSAA Football Bulletin (page 49) for the point values. If your team played a 4A (or lower) team, the first time it’s counted as a one higher classification. Each time after that, it counts for the division they played in (I’m looking at you Rampart).

Category: Commentary, predictions | Tags: 2010, 5A, Aurora Central, Boulder, calculation, Doherty, Fort Collins, Fossil Ridge, George Washington, Horizon, Legacy, Mountain Range, Northglenn, playoffs, Poudre, Rampart, Rocky Mountain, Westminster, wildcard points